US-Saudi rift deepens over OPEC+ oil cut logic →

October 13, 2022

Excerpt

Brenda Shaffer, senior advisor for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, offered that the US would derive little benefit from ratcheting up conflict with Saudi Arabia, especially in the midst of the worst energy crisis since World War II and widening global recession.

She singled the US out as the only major oil producer that did not return to pre-Covid production rates. "The US is the chief culprit for the current state of the global market and subsequent price," she added. "It is hard to fathom why the administration spends energy chastising Saudi Arabia and courting Venezuela and Iran in search of additional oil supplies, while it doesn't appeal to Houston."

Russia looms large behind OPEC+ output hike decision

Brenda Shaffer in Nikkei Asia

Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, shares a similar view.

"The high oil price not only gives Russia high revenue, but also leverage in the current Ukraine crisis, by putting economic pressure on the West to back down from further sanctions and limits on its export[s]," Shaffer told Nikkei. "Up until ... the current recession starts to lower demand for oil, there is trepidation in the West to further remove Russian oil from the market."

White House has 'lost control on the Hill' over Russian oil ban

Brenda Shaffer in The Examiner

“Over a million barrels of oil a day from Kazakhstan is getting caught up in the sanctions because it comes out at Russian ports,” said Brenda Shaffer, a senior adviser for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

US sanctions against Russian oligarchs send crude futures higher

Brenda Shaffer in Capital.com

The prospect of removing Russian exports from the world market would likely cause “a tremendous jolt” to oil prices and world economies, said Brenda Shaffer, a senior advisor for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“We’re in unknown territory if you pull 13% to 15% of global oil out of the pool. Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, it’s not even comparable to what that could do to the global oil market if you actually pulled away most of Russian production,” Shaffer said on CNBC Thursday.

A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequence

Brenda Shaffer interviewed by CNBC

Brenda Shaffer, senior advisor for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told CNBC via telephone that the prospect of removing Russian energy exports from the market would likely result in “a tremendous jolt” to global oil prices and the world economy.

“We’re in unknown territory if you pull 13% to 15% of global oil out of the pool. Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, it’s not even comparable to what that could do to the global oil market if you actually pulled away most of Russian production,” Shaffer said.

The impact of Western oil majors pulling the plug on Russia is also likely to have “huge” economic ramifications, Shaffer said, citing a flurry of announcements from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP in recent days.

“People are really cheering this as a feel-good moment but it’s actually going to be a huge, huge shock to the state of these companies and to the stock market in general,” Shaffer said.

Euro Stocks Slide, PMIs, Turkey, Oil

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg’s The Cable Podcast

Biden's release of oil reserves a 'mostly performative' act, experts say

Brenda Shaffer interviewed by Sinclair Broadcast Group

“I don’t think that OPEC and Russia will engage in a price war with the U.S., but Washington should be careful to ensure this does not happen,” said Brenda Shaffer, senior adviser for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Israel plays center stage in Azerbaijan-Iran tensions

Brenda Shaffer in Jewish News Syndicate

Last week, Brenda Shaffer, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, told JNS, “Israel and Azerbaijan maintain a strategic alliance. It is not just about arms sales or oil, but a very deep strategic cooperation.”

A global energy crisis casts shadow on crucial climate summit

Brenda Shaffer in The Washington Post

“The current European Commission has turned energy policy into a mere subset of climate policy, with little attention paid to supply security or energy affordability,” energy analyst Brenda Shaffer wrote in Foreign Policy. “While major new sources of natural gas have been found in proximity to Europe — in the Eastern Mediterranean, for example — European leaders have bowed to activist pressure and not seriously pursued any of these newly available sources.”

How the government relief package could impact the oil industry

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg News podcast

Mistake to leave Turkey out of new East Med gas club – international expert

Brenda Shaffer in the Times of Israel

But according to Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert at Georgetown University, the East Med pipeline is unlikely to be realized and the land bridge idea may be implemented, but only for emergency use.

International energy expert Brenda Shaffer (Courtesy)

“Currently, commercial prospects for this proposed [EMGF] pipeline are very low,” she told the Times of Israel from Washington DC. “There is not one company that’s committed to this project. Companies in general don’t like to invest in pipelines, because they mean a lot of risk and not a great return. And Italy is not on board.”

Italy, she continued, gets gas from Russia, Central Europe and Algeria, and is currently carrying out testing for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will transport gas from Azerbaijan’s massive Shah Deniz gas field to Europe. TAP will channel gas to Europe from Azerbaijan via Greece and Italy. “Italy is not committed to the [EMGF] pipeline anymore and it’s the only important market along that route,” Shaffer said.

Turkey’s Black Sea gas find does not match its president’s hype

Brenda Shaffer in The Economist

Turkey has already reduced its dependence on Russia, which supplied only 21% of its gas in the first half of this year, down from 52% in 2017. Instead, it has turned to Azerbaijan and to imports of liquefied natural gas. Black Sea gas will help strengthen such trends, says Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank.

East Med pipeline: maybe someday

Brenda Shaffer in Petroleum Economist

“The only potentially foreseeable event that could garner sufficient commercial attraction to the project, would be if supplies from Algeria to Europe were seriously disrupted and were no longer viewed as reliable,” says Brenda Shaffer of the Energy Academic Group at the US Naval Postgraduate School. “Algeria is going through a period of instability, which has not received much media coverage. And security is North Africa is getting worse, with IS fighters moving to the region after being dislodged from Iraq and Syria.”

‘Not necessary’ to probe spills linked to Chevron, energy minister says

Brenda Shaffer in The Times of Israel

Steinitz welcomed the acquisition as soon as it was announced last month as “a tremendous expression of confidence in the Israeli energy economy, and in the continued development and export of natural gas from the State of Israel.” Prof. Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert, said the deal was an ‘incredible’ reflection of the warming of ties between Israel and the Gulf states.

Turkey and Greece avoid coming to blows, for now

Brenda Shaffer in The Economist

Maritime law does not offer clear solutions in the Mediterranean. “Good claims could be made either way,” says Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council, adding that such disputes usually end up having to be settled by force or by agreement.

Chevron’s Noble buy reflects Israel’s ‘warming’ ties with Gulf states — expert

Brenda Shaffer in The Times of Israel

US multinational Chevron Corp.’s acquisition of Noble Energy, Inc., which would make it the new owner of Israel’s mammoth offshore natural gas fields, is an “incredible” reflection of the warming of ties between Israel and the Gulf states, according to Prof. Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert.