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The Washington Post
Brenda Shaffer, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said there are legitimate reasons to support the pipeline, including Europe’s need to reduce emissions by substituting gas for dirtier fuels such as coal. But those arguments tend to get drowned out by geopolitics.
“It’s become a litmus test for everything you think about Russia,” Shaffer said. “If you support it, then you’re not tough enough.”
Foreign Policy
“Since even with Nord Stream 2, transit through Ukraine of some Russian gas into Europe will continue, the statement is just a polite acknowledgement of that fact,” says Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies. (She’s argued that Nord Stream isn’t the threat that many in Europe and the United States make it out to be.)
“Merkel has made some major decisions on a whim, such as closing Germany’s nuclear power plants and inviting a large refugee flow, so this could signify a new policy,” Shaffer says.
The Hill
Regarding the barely green status of the Greens, Brenda Shaffer wrote in The Hill last year:
“In political systems where ethnic-based politics are severely limited, or even prohibited, populist activity around environmental causes is often tolerated by ruling regimes. They are likely to view it as a social movement and not necessarily anti-regime.Recognizing this, ethnic nationalist movements have found that there are many advantages in revolving their efforts around environmental political campaigns.”
Reuters
A specialist on energy and foreign policy said the postings likely had little influence on U.S. energy markets.
“It’s almost impossible to change U.S. energy policy through a social media campaign,” said Brenda Shaffer, a professor at Georgetown University, “a campaign would have to affect both the state and federal levels to be effective.”
Newsweek
"[Kurz’s visit] amplifies the split. You have Poland, Denmark and the U.S. on one side and Germany on the other," Brenda Shaffer, an energy analyst at Georgetown University, told Newsweek. "It’s become a divisive issue in Europe, which gives Russia more leverage."
The Jewish Post
Some observers questioned the immediate viability of the plan. “There’s not even a route determined, so it’s hard to sign a binding agreement,” said Brenda Shaffer, an American-Israeli professor at Georgetown University in Washington who has previously advised the Israeli government on energy policy. “Either EMG would need to agree to transit the gas – and that’s to resolve the whole arbitration process... For years, the Egyptians said they wouldn’t buy Israeli gas until the arbitration is dropped.”
The second option would be to ship the fuel through the existing Pan Arabian pipeline via Jordan. “If the gas is sent through Jordan, then Jordan has to agree and to establish reverse flow,” Shaffer said. “It’s still somewhat complicated.”
Real Clear Life
Drawing a meaningful connection in the cause and effect of two complex subjects that are at first glance unrelated is a neat and profitable trick for a savvy investor, but a new essay published by the CIA describes how it can be applied to the deadly serious work of intelligence analysis as a predictor of major world events.
If you can read energy policy, you can predict revolutions, it would seem.
The essay, written by international energy expert Brenda Shaffer and published in the most recent edition of the CIA’s unclassified Studies in Intelligence journal, argues that a careful examination of the energy production and consumption of a nation can reveal secrets about everything from its internal stability to its realpolitik relationships with its neighbors.
Jewish Week
What also makes the current protest different from that of 2009 is the fact the current protestors are “not talking about changing policy, they want to get rid of the whole system, which is so unprecedented,” according to Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and Eastern European Studies.
“The power of this rebellion is that it is in the provinces, the small towns,” Shaffer said. “That presents a problem for the government — putting out fires in so many areas and having to use local security forces who are not so willing to shoot their neighbors. In 2009, the IRGC did not know the people in Tehran.”
Associated Press
The provinces “face more economic hardship,” wrote Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies. “Income levels and social services in the periphery are lower, unemployment rates are higher, and many residents suffer from extensive health and livelihood challenges emanating from ecological damage.”
Brenda Shaffer in The Harvard Gazette
“Part of what Shaffer hopes to do is get people, and especially U.S. policy-makers, to see the world in these functional terms rather than make assumptions on the basis of cultural, ethnic, or religious identity. As far as the Caspian region goes, she believes that shift is crucial.
“‘These are countries that can contribute to our energy security, to nuclear nonproliferation, to antiterrorism,’ she says…”
The Harvard Gazette