President Aliyev: Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are at the lowest level ever
President Ilham Aliyev warns that Azerbaijan-Iran relations have hit their lowest point in history, citing what he calls state-sponsored terrorism from Tehran. Brenda Shaffer traces the roots of this hostility, from Iran’s opposition to Azerbaijani independence in 1991 through its arms support for Armenia in the 2020 war, and examines the fallout from January 2023’s […]
With Winter Coming, Europe Is Walking Off a Cliff
Europe’s energy crisis didn’t start with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was two decades in the making. Brenda Shaffer argues that ideologically-driven policies, phasing out nuclear and coal, banning fracking, and underinvesting in renewables, left Europe dangerously exposed even before the war began. She lays out what leaders got wrong and what it would actually […]
Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War and Its Implications for the Future
Israel’s 25-year defense partnership with Azerbaijan proved decisive in the 2020 war with Armenia, and its implications reach far beyond the battlefield. Brenda Shaffer examines how Azerbaijan’s innovative use of Israeli drones, integrated with Turkish systems, reshaped the conflict, helped thaw Turkey-Israel relations, and gave Israel a foothold of influence among the ethnic Azerbaijani population […]
Iran’s policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iran is often seen as an Islamic power guided by religious solidarity, but Brenda Shaffer argues its policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia tells a different story. With more than half its borders and a third of its population tied to these regions, Iran acts on pragmatic self-interest, not faith, as shown by its […]
Europe’s Tiny Steps Won’t Solve Its Energy Emergency
Europe’s energy emergency wasn’t caused by the war in Ukraine. It was decades in the making. Policymakers leaned on renewable subsidies, restricted domestic gas development, and trusted market mechanisms to manage what was really a security crisis. They also phased out nuclear power without a viable replacement. The modest steps European governments have taken so […]
Energy in Conflict: The Case of the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War
As hybrid warfare grows more common, combatants are increasingly targeting energy infrastructure itself. Brenda Shaffer examines how energy shaped the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War: threats to the soon-to-open Southern Gas Corridor helped trigger the fighting, energy infrastructure was weaponized on both sides, and Armenia struck at Azerbaijan’s export network, offering a preview of how energy assets […]
It’s Time to Be Honest About Fossil Fuels’ Role in Energy Transition
Brenda Shaffer argues the Biden administration needs a more honest energy policy, and fast. Fuel inflation has become a political liability. Natural gas shortages are threatening heating and electricity costs at home. Shaffer says calls on OPEC and Russia for more supply are a reactive scramble, not a strategy. The real problem is closer to […]
Is Europe’s Energy Crisis a Preview of America’s?
Brenda Shaffer says Europe’s energy crisis is mostly self-inflicted, and Washington is copying the same mistakes. Europe is facing record-high prices, tight supplies, and blackouts. It’s not simply a renewables-versus-fossil-fuels story. Part of it comes down to market design. The EU moved from long-term fixed gas contracts to daily spot pricing. That handed Russia more […]
The Hidden Dangers of a Carbon-Neutral Military
Brenda Shaffer and Alan Howard warn that an all-electric US military could be good for the planet and bad for national security. Right now the military draws on a mix of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydropower, biofuels, wind, and solar. That mix is a strength. Narrowing it down to electricity alone would cut into […]