How to Predict a Revolution in the Dark

Real Clear Life

Drawing a meaningful connection in the cause and effect of two complex subjects that are at first glance unrelated is a neat and profitable trick for a savvy investor, but a new essay published by the CIA describes how it can be applied to the deadly serious work of intelligence analysis as a predictor of major world events.

If you can read energy policy, you can predict revolutions, it would seem.

The essay, written by international energy expert Brenda Shaffer and published in the most recent edition of the CIA’s unclassified Studies in Intelligence journal, argues that a careful examination of the energy production and consumption of a nation can reveal secrets about everything from its internal stability to its realpolitik relationships with its neighbors.

Will Iran Protests Hurt Terror Exports?

Jewish Week

What also makes the current protest different from that of 2009 is the fact the current protestors are “not talking about changing policy, they want to get rid of the whole system, which is so unprecedented,” according to Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and Eastern European Studies.

“The power of this rebellion is that it is in the provinces, the small towns,” Shaffer said. “That presents a problem for the government — putting out fires in so many areas and having to use local security forces who are not so willing to shoot their neighbors. In 2009, the IRGC did not know the people in Tehran.”

Iran’s ethnic minorities are playing a vital role in protests. Don’t overlook the power in the provinces

Fox News - Opinion

Iranian government representatives and many Western journalists based in the capital of Tehran are reporting that the wave of anti-government protest demonstrations that began on December 28 has died down. But protests continued Friday and all this week in Iran’s outer provinces, in both cities and rural areas among ethnic minorities. They could have enormous significance for the future of Iran...

Iran’s working class, facing dim prospects, fuels unrest

Associated Press

The provinces “face more economic hardship,” wrote Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies. “Income levels and social services in the periphery are lower, unemployment rates are higher, and many residents suffer from extensive health and livelihood challenges emanating from ecological damage.”

Iranian uprisings put upward pressure on oil prices

The Hill - Opinion

The revolt in Iran emerged as global supply and demand are closely aligned. When the oil market is tight, geopolitical events in oil-producing and -transit regions impact the oil price. When the market is liquid, as it was for most of the last three years, major geopolitical turmoil can occur without major impacts on oil prices for a significant period of time.

However, in the last quarter of 2017, the global oil market tightened, amplifying the impact of the current developments in Iran on the global oil price. 

How the U.S. Promotes Extremism in the Name of Religious Freedom

Foreign Affairs - Opinion; with S. Frederick Starr and Svante Cornell.

Despite Congress’ best intentions, the USCIRF has strayed far from its mandate. In its 2017 report, the commission effectively supports the right of Islamist extremists to operate in several Muslim-majority countries, Iranian mullahs to spread radicalism abroad, and hardline Islamist organizations to receive foreign funding. It also castigates policies that promote secularism, such as bans on headscarves for girls in public schools. In its quest to protect freedom of religion, the USCIRF is championing the rights of groups that aspire to impose religious coercion on others.

Saudis and Russia speak, but oil goes lower?

CNBC

On the other hand, Brenda Shaffer, senior global fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" the meeting was a tactical and genius move from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

"No matter what, just by talking about it they've gained a lot financially," she said. "Also, this puts the blame on Iran. It makes it look like Russia and Saudi Arabia are really trying to be very productive and helpful in the market."

Will the U.S. exploit the weakened Russian economy?

Fox Business

Georgetown Adjunct Professor Brenda Shaffer on whether or not the U.S. has economic leverage to alter the Russian government’s regime.

Energy and INsecurity: Iran, Middle East, Russia and Eurasia, Georgetown Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies