The Achilles heel of Iran

Brenda Shaffer in American Thinker

When it comes to Iran, most analysts and commentators speak as if the country were a homogenous monolith comprising Persians. It is not. In fact, the seldom mentioned Achilles heel of Iran is its diverse ethnic and religious make-up. This is highlighted by Brenda Shaffer of Georgetown University, who is a leading expert on Iran's ethnic minorities. Shaffer projects that Iran's current population of more than eighty-five million is made up of forty-two million Persians, an estimated twenty-seven million Azerbaijanis, and roughly eight million Kurds, five million Arabs, two million Turkmen, and one-and-a-half million Baluch.

Energy Outlook for 2020

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg Markets - segments starts at 12:24

Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya

Brenda Shaffer in Foreign Policy

The project would be the culmination of the so-called Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum that Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece signed earlier this year—pointedly excluding Turkey from the club. “I think that Turkey is really concerned about this ‘Club Med.’ I think it was a strategic mistake on those countries’ part—if you need regional cooperation, you don’t just include your buddies,” said Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at Georgetown University. “I think Turkey wants to be part of the picture.”

Turkey, Israel gas cooperation lucrative for capitalizing on East Med resources

Brenda Shaffer in Daily Sabah

“Throughout the period of crisis in the relations between Turkey and Israel, Ankara has supported conducting discussions with Israel on potential gas supply to Turkey or transit through Turkey. It is true in the current period as well,” Brenda Shaffer, a visiting researcher at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies (CERES) and senior fellow at Atlantic Council, told Daily Sabah in an exclusive exchange.

Iran's Imperial History Overshadows Its Future

Brenda Shaffer in The National Interest

Exactly how ethnically diverse Iran actually is, however, is a matter of some debate. There are currently “no agreed-upon academic or governmental sources on Iran’s ethnic make-up,” says Brenda Shaffer of Georgetown University, one of the country’s leading experts on Iran’s ethnic minorities. And because there aren’t, U.S. government estimates—including the CIA’s vaunted World Factbook, which policy institutes and academia routinely rely on for figures—have tended to reflect official Iranian data regarding the population of its provinces.

Nord Stream 2 clears final hurdle — but delays loom

Brenda Shaffer in Politico

Brenda Shaffer, adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, said the prospect of sanctions is becoming more distant — particularly given the pipeline’s Ukraine connections. “With Ukraine policy having recently entered the domestic U.S. arena, there probably is not much appetite in Congress to engage in a policy related to the Ukrainian gas sector,” she said, referring to the current impeachment procedures against U.S. President Donald Trump.

Iran launches the Apocalypse against Saudi Arabia and the world doesn't end

Brenda Shaffer on the John Batchelor Show

EU disunity on US’s anti-Nord Stream 2 push

Brenda Shaffer in Politico

If Congress passes U.S. sanctions against Nord Stream 2, what will matter is whether they are binding on Trump, said Brenda Shaffer, adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies.

“Members of Congress love foreign policy related sanctions that are non-binding — it gives them the chance to come to their constituents and show them that they are tough ... without complicating U.S. foreign policy,” she said. “The current committee approval does increase the degree of uncertainty for the involved companies and will add to the list of issues of dispute between Berlin and Washington, but so far, is not a concrete change.”

Gulf Tanker Attacks Are an Act of Desperation, Atlantic Council's Shaffer Says

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg TV

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Ukraine Says Eight Soldiers were Captured by Russian-Backed Fighter Jets Just Hours After Talks of Peace Deal

Brenda Shaffer in Newsweek

"By focusing on the companies that supply the vessels that lay deep-sea pipelines, the bill has potential to be very effective. It targets one of the only aspects of the project that Russia needs foreign technology for," Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at Georgetown University, told Newsweek.

"However, as with most sanctions' legislation, the devil is in the details. Congress frequently passes all sorts of sanctions, but most are discretionary sanctions, where essentially the executive can decide to apply them or not," Shaffer continued. "Accordingly, if the administration wants to improve relations with Moscow, it most likely will not apply the sanctions."

Tensions in Libya Add to Supply Concerns

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg TV (video not available)

Turkish Cypriots seek end to natural gas dispute

Brenda Shaffer in Reuters

An expert on European energy politics said Northern Cyprus was trying to build momentum while President Donald Trump expects warmer relations with Turkey. “Clearly the Trump administration is trying to improve relations with Turkey, thus it is logical that Northern Cyprus is trying to leverage a deal,” said Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russia and and East European Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

The economy, stupid: The key factor for oil prices in 2019

The Hill - Brenda Shaffer Opinion

There is no consensus among oil watchers about which direction the global oil price will go. The fundamentals point to two opposite trends:

On the one hand, several significant geopolitical risks point toward upcoming supply downfalls, which would boost the oil price. On the other, economic data in a number of major markets, including China, points toward recession, which would bring oil demand down. Which trend will have the upper hand?

On the supply side, two major sources of supply loss are already factored into the oil price: Venezuelan instability that will continue to bring down its oil production and U.S. sanctions that will continue to slice supplies from Iran.

Club Med: Israel, Egypt, and Others Form New Natural Gas Group

Brenda Shaffer in Foreign Policy

The new body will promote “discussions among countries that already have cooperation with each other,” said Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at Georgetown University. “Hopefully, in the next round of the forum, Turkey will be involved, and that would make it much more significant and not just include the happy campers.”

The missing catalyst for Iranian democracy

Reuters - Brenda Shaffer Opinion

Just before imposing new sanctions on Iran, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the country’s “cabinet is in disarray, and the Iranian people are raising their voices even louder against a corrupt and hypocritical regime.” While this is clearly true, it’s also true that sanctions alone are unlikely to topple the government or force democratic reforms. For that to happen, foreign governments and domestic opposition leaders must take another critical step – to finally acknowledge the importance of the country’s ethnic minorities and develop policies to address their demands.

War, sanctions, political strife to drive oil prices higher

The Hill - Opinion

At first blush, one might expect a major meeting of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its associate non-OPEC producers in Algeria on Sunday, would have impact on developments in the global oil market.

Yet, the formal gathering will matter far less than less-visible and seemingly unconnected trends: a rise in geopolitical risks and new data showing a further tightening in the global oil market.

After Donald Trump Slammed Germany's Dependance on Russia, Congress Moves to Sanction Moscow-Europe Energy Project

Brenda Shaffer in Newsweek.

“It is not clear if this [bill] gets to the floor for a vote. It might be a Hail Mary symbolic gesture. But I think it plays into the Russian narrative, even if it has the opposite intention,” Brenda Shaffer, an energy analyst at Georgetown University, told Newsweek.

“Russia is constantly saying that the U.S. wants to block Nord Stream 2 to promote LNG. I think that’s incorrect, but by linking these two things, non-discretionary sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and LNG, it reinforces feelings in Germany and elsewhere that this is about U.S. market share,” Shaffer continued.

With Trump Going Soft on Nord Stream, Congress Moves to Kill the Pipeline

Brenda Shaffer in Foreign Policy

But by promoting U.S. energy exports as a replacement for Nord Stream 2, Washington is sending the wrong message on Russian energy coercion, said Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at Georgetown University.

“Linking U.S. gas exports to anti-Nord Stream 2 legislation undermines the U.S. position against the pipeline,” she said, because it “reinforces Moscow’s claim that the U.S. is acting out of self-interest, despite that not being the case.”

What Iran’s World Cup Team Says About Oil Production

The Atlantic Council - Brenda Shaffer Opinion

In the current tight oil market, where little wiggle room exists between supply and demand, any production outage has the potential to significantly impact the global oil price. And while observers frequently discuss many of the geopolitical risks that could lead to such outages, the potential for outages in Iranian production warrants further consideration—and not simply because of the re-implementation of sanctions. One key threat to Iranian oil production is domestic—specifically intensifying ethnic tensions, the depth of which were recently displayed on the soccer pitch of all places. 

How Bad Is Iran’s Oil Situation?

Brenda Shaffer in OilPrice.com

But for now, there is no policy shift. “I think there's going to be very few waivers. That's what we're hearing all the time from officials across the administration. I think it's a very strong policy decision,” Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, told Oilprice.com.