Brenda Shaffer: Non-Persian Ethnic Minorities in Iran May Be Ripe for Revolt

Brenda Shaffer in Middle East Forum

Brenda Shaffer, Senior Advisor for Energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), spoke to a May 21 Middle East Forum webinar (video) about Iran's multi-ethnic minorities.

According to Shaffer, the size of non-Persian ethnic minorities in Iran is larger than commonly estimated by Western sources, which have relied on "old versions of the CIA Fact Book," which has been "debunked." In fact, Iranian government data mined by Shaffer for her FDD monograph, Iran Is More than Persia, shows that these minorities, including Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baluchs, Lurs, and Ahwazi Arabs, comprise "over half of the population of Iran." According to the Iranian government's own internal polling data, some 40% of the population claims to be not fully fluent in the Persian language (Farsi).

Armenia’s nuclear power plant is dangerous. Time to close it.

Brenda Shaffer opinion column in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

In late 2020, the Armenian government announced that its Metsamor nuclear power plant would close for five months in 2021 to attempt significant upgrades. Soon after, the EU urged Armenia to make the closure permanent since the plant “cannot be updated to fully meet internationally accepted safety standards.” A major nuclear or radiation accident at Metsamor would not only affect the people of Armenia, but citizens in neighboring Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, and southern Europe.

What's in Store for Oil Prices in 2021? →

Brenda Shaffer live on Bloomberg TV

How the government relief package could impact the oil industry

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg News podcast

Mistake to leave Turkey out of new East Med gas club – international expert

Brenda Shaffer in the Times of Israel

But according to Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert at Georgetown University, the East Med pipeline is unlikely to be realized and the land bridge idea may be implemented, but only for emergency use.

International energy expert Brenda Shaffer (Courtesy)

“Currently, commercial prospects for this proposed [EMGF] pipeline are very low,” she told the Times of Israel from Washington DC. “There is not one company that’s committed to this project. Companies in general don’t like to invest in pipelines, because they mean a lot of risk and not a great return. And Italy is not on board.”

Italy, she continued, gets gas from Russia, Central Europe and Algeria, and is currently carrying out testing for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will transport gas from Azerbaijan’s massive Shah Deniz gas field to Europe. TAP will channel gas to Europe from Azerbaijan via Greece and Italy. “Italy is not committed to the [EMGF] pipeline anymore and it’s the only important market along that route,” Shaffer said.

Turkey’s Black Sea gas find does not match its president’s hype

Brenda Shaffer in The Economist

Turkey has already reduced its dependence on Russia, which supplied only 21% of its gas in the first half of this year, down from 52% in 2017. Instead, it has turned to Azerbaijan and to imports of liquefied natural gas. Black Sea gas will help strengthen such trends, says Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank.

East Med pipeline: maybe someday

Brenda Shaffer in Petroleum Economist

“The only potentially foreseeable event that could garner sufficient commercial attraction to the project, would be if supplies from Algeria to Europe were seriously disrupted and were no longer viewed as reliable,” says Brenda Shaffer of the Energy Academic Group at the US Naval Postgraduate School. “Algeria is going through a period of instability, which has not received much media coverage. And security is North Africa is getting worse, with IS fighters moving to the region after being dislodged from Iraq and Syria.”

‘Not necessary’ to probe spills linked to Chevron, energy minister says

Brenda Shaffer in The Times of Israel

Steinitz welcomed the acquisition as soon as it was announced last month as “a tremendous expression of confidence in the Israeli energy economy, and in the continued development and export of natural gas from the State of Israel.” Prof. Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert, said the deal was an ‘incredible’ reflection of the warming of ties between Israel and the Gulf states.

The Beirut Disaster Is Part of a Larger Chain

Brenda Shaffer Op-Ed in Real Clear Energy

This year will be remembered for many things. One of them will be the large number of attacks and explosions of critical infrastructure in several countries. The first was Iran’s attack on Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia’s main oil processing and transit node, long viewed as the doomsday scenario of the international oil industry. Next, in July, Armenia launched several attacks on Azerbaijani military and civilian targets in close proximity to the major East-West energy corridor from Azerbaijan to Europe.  Most recently, there was the tragic explosion at the Beirut port on August 4.

Turkey and Greece avoid coming to blows, for now

Brenda Shaffer in The Economist

Maritime law does not offer clear solutions in the Mediterranean. “Good claims could be made either way,” says Brenda Shaffer, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council, adding that such disputes usually end up having to be settled by force or by agreement.

Chevron’s Noble buy reflects Israel’s ‘warming’ ties with Gulf states — expert

Brenda Shaffer in The Times of Israel

US multinational Chevron Corp.’s acquisition of Noble Energy, Inc., which would make it the new owner of Israel’s mammoth offshore natural gas fields, is an “incredible” reflection of the warming of ties between Israel and the Gulf states, according to Prof. Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert.

Azerbaijani ambassador: Border hostilities may harm Israeli oil supplies

Brenda Shaffer in the Jerusalem Post

Energy expert Brenda Shaffer, of the US Naval Post graduate school faculty and the senior adviser for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank said the border violence was not accidental and blamed Armenia for wanting to disrupt completion of the new gas pipeline.

“It doesn’t happen by chance” that violence broke out “on the eve of the completion of the Southern Gas Corridor, which will bring the first new gas volumes into Europe in decades,” Shaffer said.

Oil Likely to Surge in Third or Fourth Quarter, Says Atlantic Council's Shaffer

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg TV

Oil price war ends, but coronavirus demand crisis remains

Brenda Shaffer Post on Atlantic Council Blog

After marathon Easter weekend negotiations, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) reached a historical agreement to cut 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production, responding to what was a mounting crisis spurred by crumbling oil demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and a monthlong price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

OPEC Meeting Readout

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg Surveillance - Segment begins at 53:57

Developments in the Oil Market

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg TV - Segment begins at 20:40

New regional gas market dynamics under LNG expansion and the shale gas revolution

Brenda Shaffer Speaking at the Atlantic Council’s IN TURKEY Program Conference

Prof. Brenda Shaffer, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center agreed with Ali Shahbazov that Europe is going to need more gas in the future. Shaffer argued that while there is a lot of rhetoric about competition between projects, there is room for much more gas in Europe, so it isn’t really a zero-sum game. In this context, Shaffer argued that Turkey plays an important role as a transit country for gas, but not as a gas hub.  She said gas hubs also carry risk with them, while being a transit country brings the same geopolitical and economic clout.

The United States Needs to Declare War on Proxies

Brenda Shaffer and Svante Cornell in Foreign Policy

There has been no shortage of debate about the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani and its effects on U.S. foreign policy toward Iran and the broader Middle East. Not nearly enough has been said about whether it can broadly serve as a model for dealing with the problems posed by proxy forces elsewhere in the world.

The Unclear Future of Nord Stream 2, Russia's Controversial Gas Pipeline

Brenda Shaffer in Natural Gas World

"It is unhealthy for trans-Atlantic relations for Washington to sanction an energy project in Europe, but it seems that Europe and the US every couple decades has a skirmish over new Russian pipelines into Europe, and nevertheless the relations emerge intact," professor Brenda Shaffer, a Russia expert at Georgetown University, told DW.

Developments in Iran

Brenda Shaffer on Bloomberg TV - segment starts at 26:24